超予測力 cover art

超予測力

不確実な時代の先を読む10カ条

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超予測力

By: フィリップ・Ｅ・テトロック, ダン・ガードナー 土方 奈美
Narrated by: 菱田 盛之
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本タイトルには付属資料・PDFが用意されています。ご購入後、PCサイトのライブラリー、またはアプリ上の「目次」からご確認ください。

「専門家の予測精度はチンパンジーのダーツ投げ並み」

―ーこんな調査結果で注目を浴びた著者の研究チームが、

大規模な予測力研究プロジェクトを実施した。

計２万人以上のボランティアに市場動向から政治情勢まで、さまざまな領域の未来予測をさせた結果、抜群の成績を誇る「超予測者」が約２％存在することが判明。

彼らの思考法やスキルはどこが違うのか。

徹底検証の末に導き出された、読むだけで予測精度を高める「10の心得」とは。

混迷を極める時代に、より良い意思決定をするための必読書。

SUPERFORECASTING
The Art and Science of Prediction
by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner
Copyright ⓒ 2015 by Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc.
All rights reserved.
Japanese audiobook rights arranged with
Brockman, Inc.

©- (P)2023 Hayakawa Publishing Inc. Consumer Behavior & Market Research
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