Episodes

  • US Housing Slowdown Amid Low Inventory and Rising Prices Challenges Industry Recovery

    US Housing Slowdown Amid Low Inventory and Rising Prices Challenges Industry Recovery
    Nov 24 2024
    The US housing industry is currently experiencing a slowdown, with recent market movements indicating a decline in demand and a rise in inventory. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, home prices increased by 4.2% year-over-year in August 2024, marking the 15th consecutive all-time high[4]. However, this growth is slower compared to the previous year, which saw a 19.28% increase[1].

    The decline in mortgage rates in July gave a slight boost to home sales, with total home sales rising 2.6% over the month to 4.7 million[2]. However, pending home sales declined 5.5% month-over-month in July, indicating a continued slowdown in the market. The homebuilder confidence index fell further to 39 in August, indicating poor building conditions over the next six months[2].

    The median sales price for existing homes increased 1% year-over-year to $404,500 in September 2024, the highest September median recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)[4]. However, existing-home sales in September were down 3.5% from last year, and the volume of home sales has continued to soften over the course of 2024[4].

    The housing inventory remains low, with a 4.3-month supply of existing homes on the market as of September, up 23% from the previous year but still short of the 5-6 months needed for a balanced market[4]. The number of rental units permitted has contributed to an excess in the supply of rental units, with the average apartment vacancy rate at its highest level in over 20 years[3].

    In response to the current challenges, US housing industry leaders are focusing on affordability and inventory. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, notes that more supply is beginning to appear, which could be an early indicator of more home sales later[4]. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, emphasizes that lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity and drive more sellers to trade their existing homes, adding much-needed inventory to the market[4].

    Compared to the previous reporting period, the US housing industry has seen a slowdown in demand and a rise in inventory. The decline in mortgage rates has given a slight boost to home sales, but the market remains tight, with low inventory levels and high prices. Industry leaders are responding to these challenges by focusing on affordability and inventory, and the market is expected to remain muted in 2024 and 2025[2].
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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Navigates Affordability Challenges Amid Rising Prices and High Mortgage Rates

    US Housing Market Navigates Affordability Challenges Amid Rising Prices and High Mortgage Rates
    Nov 22 2024
    The US housing industry is currently navigating a complex landscape marked by rising home prices, limited supply, and high mortgage rates. Recent market movements indicate a slowdown in home sales, with total home sales down 16% year-over-year as of 2023[4]. Despite this decline, median home prices have continued to rise, reaching $404,500 in September 2024, the highest September median ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)[5].

    The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reported a 4.2% year-over-year increase in home prices in August 2024, marking the 15th consecutive all-time high[5]. However, the pace of appreciation has slowed compared to previous years, with the S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rising by a modest 3.8% year-over-year in January 2023, a sharp slowdown from the prior year’s 19.28% increase[1].

    Mortgage rates have been a significant factor in the market, with the average 30-year mortgage rate standing at 6.88% as of October 30, 2024, down from its peak but still high enough to deter potential buyers[5]. The tight housing inventory, with a 4.3-month supply as of September 2024, continues to favor sellers[5].

    Emerging trends include a shift towards more affordable housing options, with the apartment sector expected to benefit from new supply, enhancing rent growth and affordability[2]. The commercial real estate market is recovering, particularly in the industrial and retail sectors, with emerging investments in data centers[2].

    Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on affordability and supply. For example, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has emphasized the need for policies that address the housing affordability crisis, including reducing regulatory barriers and increasing funding for affordable housing programs[3].

    Comparing current conditions to the previous reporting period, the market has seen a slight improvement in home sales, with total home sales rising 2.6% over the month to 4.7 million in July 2024[3]. However, pending home sales declined 5.5% month-over-month in July, indicating ongoing affordability challenges[3].

    In conclusion, the US housing industry is characterized by rising home prices, limited supply, and high mortgage rates. While there are signs of a slight improvement in home sales, the market remains challenging for potential buyers. Industry leaders are focusing on affordability and supply to address these challenges, and emerging trends suggest a shift towards more affordable housing options.
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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Slowdown: Modest Price Rises and Affordability Challenges

    US Housing Market Slowdown: Modest Price Rises and Affordability Challenges
    Nov 19 2024
    The current state of the US housing industry is characterized by a slowdown in demand and a modest increase in home prices. According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, home prices rose by 4.2% year-over-year in August 2024, marking the 15th consecutive all-time high[4]. However, this growth is significantly lower than the 19.28% increase seen in the previous year[1].

    The decline in mortgage rates in recent weeks has given a slight boost to home sales, with total home sales rising 2.6% over the month to 4.7 million in July[3]. However, pending home sales declined 5.5% month-over-month in July, indicating that affordability challenges continue to impact the market[3].

    The housing inventory remains low, with a 4.3-month supply of existing homes for sale as of September 2024, up 23% from the previous year but still short of the 5 to 6 months needed for a balanced market[4]. The median sale price for an existing home in the US was $404,500 in September 2024, the highest September median ever recorded[4].

    Homebuilder sentiment remains weak, with the National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index falling to 39 in August, below the threshold of 50 indicating poor building conditions[3]. Housing starts for July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.24 million, 6.8% below June's 1.33 million units[3].

    Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by emphasizing the need for lower mortgage rates to spur home sales activity. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, "Lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity... declines in mortgage rates would drive more sellers to trade their existing home and help add much-needed inventory to the market, leading to more transactions"[4].

    Compared to the previous reporting period, the US housing industry is experiencing a slowdown in demand and a modest increase in home prices. The decline in mortgage rates has given a slight boost to home sales, but affordability challenges continue to impact the market. Industry leaders are calling for lower mortgage rates to spur home sales activity and increase inventory.

    Key statistics include:

    - Home prices rose by 4.2% year-over-year in August 2024[4].
    - Total home sales rose 2.6% over the month to 4.7 million in July[3].
    - Pending home sales declined 5.5% month-over-month in July[3].
    - The median sale price for an existing home in the US was $404,500 in September 2024[4].
    - The housing inventory remains low, with a 4.3-month supply of existing homes for sale as of September 2024[4].
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    3 mins
  • "Navigating the US Housing Landscape: Highs, Lows, and the Pursuit of Balance"

    "Navigating the US Housing Landscape: Highs, Lows, and the Pursuit of Balance"
    Nov 18 2024
    The current state of the US housing industry is marked by rising home prices and limited supply. According to recent data, home prices nationwide increased by 3.9% year over year in August 2024 compared to August 2023, with a slight decline of 0.1% on a month-over-month basis[1]. The median home-sale price reached $404,500 in September 2024, the highest September median ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)[4].

    Despite high mortgage rates averaging 6.88% as of late October 2024, the market remains robust due to strong demand from first-time buyers and a persistent shortage of homes[2][4]. The tight housing inventory, with just a 4.3-month supply, continues to favor sellers, although it has improved from the previous year[4].

    Emerging trends include a potential stabilization of mortgage rates, which could spur more activity in the market. Experts forecast a 2.5% increase in home prices in 2024 and a 2.1% increase in 2025[2]. However, the uncertainty over rates and the upcoming election could keep price growth expectations muted[1].

    Consumer behavior has shifted slightly, with existing-home sales in September down by 3.5% from the previous year, indicating a softening in the volume of home sales[4]. However, if mortgage rates dip further, this trend may pivot, encouraging more sellers to trade their existing homes and add much-needed inventory to the market[4].

    Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by emphasizing the need for more supply. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, notes that more supply is beginning to appear, which could be an early indicator of more home sales later as consumers see more choices and home prices stabilize[4].

    Comparing current conditions to the previous reporting period, the housing market has seen a slight increase in inventory levels, but it remains a seller's market. The average 30-year mortgage rate has decreased from its peak but is still high, affecting home-buying decisions[4].

    Key statistics include:
    - Home prices increased by 3.9% year over year in August 2024[1].
    - The median home-sale price was $404,500 in September 2024[4].
    - The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.88% as of late October 2024[4].
    - The housing inventory had a 4.3-month supply as of September 2024[4].

    Overall, the US housing industry is navigating a complex landscape of high prices, limited supply, and fluctuating mortgage rates, with industry leaders focusing on the need for more inventory to balance the market.
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    3 mins
  • US Housing Market Resilience and Challenges: Navigating the Dynamic Landscape

    US Housing Market Resilience and Challenges: Navigating the Dynamic Landscape
    Nov 15 2024
    The current state of the US housing industry is characterized by a mix of trends that reflect both resilience and challenges. Recent market movements indicate a moderate pace of growth, with home prices continuing to rise despite high mortgage rates.

    As of September 2024, the median home-sale price reached $404,500, the highest September median ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors (NAR)[5]. Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in September 2024 compared with September 2023[4]. This growth, though slower than previous years, suggests a stable market.

    However, the volume of home sales has softened over the course of 2024, with existing-home sales in September down by 3.5% from last year[5]. The tight housing inventory, with a 4.3-month supply as of September, continues to favor sellers[5].

    Mortgage rates have come down from their peak but remain high, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.88% as of late October 2024[5]. This has led to affordability challenges, with the pending home sales index level of 70.2 being the lowest reading since the index began tracking in 2001[3].

    Despite these challenges, the market is expected to improve with lower mortgage rates. The decline in mortgage rates in July gave a slight nudge upward to home sales, with total home sales for July rising 2.6% over the month to 4.7 million[3].

    In terms of emerging trends, the commercial real estate sector is recovering, particularly in the industrial and retail sectors, with emerging investments in data centers[1]. The adoption of hybrid work models and strong retail real estate fundamentals are driving this optimism.

    Consumer behavior has shifted, with homebuyers waiting for rates to fall further before entering the market. This has led to a relatively flat home price growth since late summer[4].

    Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on affordability and supply chain developments. For example, the surge in new apartment supplies is expected to ease rent hikes and aid renter affordability[1].

    Comparing current conditions to the previous reporting period, the market has shown signs of stabilizing, with inflationary pressures abating and consumer price growth on a path back toward 2%, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate[3].

    In conclusion, the US housing industry is navigating a dynamic landscape marked by rising home prices, limited supply, and high mortgage rates. While challenges persist, the market is expected to improve with lower mortgage rates and emerging trends in commercial real estate. Industry leaders are focusing on affordability and supply chain developments to address current challenges.
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    3 mins
  • The Steady Housing Market: Navigating Affordability Challenges in 2024

    The Steady Housing Market: Navigating Affordability Challenges in 2024
    Nov 14 2024
    The US housing industry is currently navigating a complex and somewhat stagnant landscape, influenced by various economic and market factors.

    As of September 2024, national home prices, including distressed sales, have increased by 3.4% year-over-year compared to September 2023, although the month-over-month increase was a mere 0.02% from August to September[1].

    Despite this modest growth, the housing market is showing signs of cooling. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast predicts a slight drop in home prices by 0.1% from September to October 2024, and a 2.3% year-over-year increase from September 2024 to September 2025[1].

    Several factors are contributing to this slowdown. High mortgage rates, which were around 6.88% for a 30-year mortgage as of late October, continue to deter potential buyers. Although rates have come down from their peak, they remain high enough to impact affordability[3].

    Inventory levels, while slightly improving, remain low. The nation had a 4.3-month supply of housing inventory as of September, which is still considered a seller's market. This tight inventory, combined with high home prices, is keeping many buyers on the sidelines[3].

    Consumer behavior is also shifting in response to these conditions. Existing-home sales in September were down by 3.5% from the previous year, as homeowners choose to stay in their current homes in anticipation of lower mortgage rates[3].

    The labor market's performance is another significant factor. The economy added only 12,000 jobs in October 2024, the fewest in almost four years, which may be dampening demand and price appreciation in the housing market[1].

    In terms of new construction, housing starts have declined, with single-family housing starts falling 14.1% from the previous month and 14.8% below last July’s levels. Builder sentiment, as measured by the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index, has also dipped due to affordability constraints from high interest rates[4].

    Despite these challenges, there are some positive indicators. Consumer spending remains solid, and the average effective rent for apartments has increased by 1% over the past year, although this is a significant slowdown from the previous years' growth rates[2].

    Industry leaders are responding to these challenges by emphasizing the need for lower mortgage rates to stimulate the market. According to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, "Lower mortgage rates would help spur home sales activity" and add much-needed inventory to the market[3].

    In summary, the US housing industry is experiencing a period of relative stability but with underlying challenges. High mortgage rates, low inventory, and economic uncertainties are keeping the market subdued. However, there are indications that if mortgage rates continue to trend downward, it could loosen the current lock-in effect and potentially boost home sales and inventory levels.
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    3 mins