Santorini Greece Earthquake Crisis - February 2025

Executive Summary:

Santorini, Greece, a major tourist destination, is experiencing a significant seismic swarm beginning in late January 2025. Thousands of earthquakes, some exceeding magnitude 5, have prompted a state of emergency, mass evacuations, and growing concerns about the upcoming tourist season. While scientists do not believe a volcanic eruption is imminent and larger earthquakes are not assured, the unusual nature of the swarm and the potential for damage are causing widespread anxiety and economic disruption. The crisis has exposed infrastructure vulnerabilities and sparked debate about investment in the island's resilience.

Key Themes and Information:

• Seismic Activity:
• A significant earthquake swarm began around January 26, 2025, with thousands of tremors affecting Santorini and nearby islands like Amorgos.
• The strongest earthquake recorded was a magnitude 5.2.
• "It's estimated that about 12,000 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 1 have been registered in the area near Santorini and Amorgos since Jan. 26"
• The epicenter of the earthquakes appeared to be moving northward.
• The European-Mediterranean Seismological Center described the swarm as "very unusual," noting that the magnitude and rate of earthquakes have been increasing, rather than decreasing as typically expected after a large quake.
• Scientists have installed underwater seismographs to better understand the earthquake activity.
• While some small events have been recorded below Santorini, they are "pretty sparse, and they mostly predate this swarm."
• The swarm began with small earthquakes. Starting on February 1, the seismicity started to intensify, broaden, and move slightly towards the northeast.
• Focal mechanisms are largely normal-type, striking NE-SW.
• "the seismicity may be shallowing as it migrates northeastward. This kind of migration would be consistent with the movement of euids through the crust, which remains the most likely explanation for what is going on."
• "The most likely situation is that the swarm will settle down without triggering a large earthquake. However, the risk is certainly elevated above its normal level."
• "The NE-trending Ios Fault Zone appears to be a key factor in this seismic swarm. The concentration of seismicity at 10–15 km depth aligns well with the fault’s downward extension. One possible explanation is that fluids—potentially hot—are triggering seismic activity."
• State of Emergency and Response:
• A state of emergency was declared on Santorini and later Amorgos.
• "Santorini is under a state of emergency until March 3 to "address the emergency"
• Rescue teams have been deployed to Santorini.
• Schools were closed, and public events were canceled.
• Access to coastal areas and clifftop viewpoints was restricted due to landslide risks.
• The Greek government responded positively to proposals to support the existing workforce on the island and those looking to work during the season.
• Aid was expedited by the declaration of a state of emergency.
• Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis visited the island to assess the situation and urge calm.
• "We hope this phenomenon ends quickly and the island fully returns to its normal pace," Mitsotakis said.

"Gulf of America" Controversy

Subject: Review of the "Gulf of America" naming dispute and related implications.

Meteorology Matters summarizes the controversy surrounding the potential renaming of the "Gulf of Mexico" to the "Gulf of America" by the United States government, specifically under the direction of President Trump. The change, initiated via executive order, has sparked international debate, particularly with Mexico, and raises significant practical and political implications for mapping, weather forecasting, and international relations. Mexico is considering legal action, and agencies like NOAA are struggling to implement the change while maintaining international consistency and relevance.

Key Themes & Information:

1. The Name Change Initiative:

• President Trump issued a decree/executive order to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the "Gulf of America." The impetus for this change is not explicitly stated, but Time refers to a Trump declaration that he "would change the Gulf's name."
• The NOAA is in the process of implementing the Executive Order. Susan Buchanan, a National Weather Service spokesperson, said that the change would affect all of the agency's weather products, "Work is underway to update naming conventions as quickly as possible on nautical charts, online maps, weather products, websites and other materials across NOAA."

1. Mexican Opposition and Potential Legal Action:

• The Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, strongly opposes the name change, arguing that the name "Gulf of Mexico" dates back to 1607 and is internationally recognized by the United Nations.
• Sheinbaum indicated that Mexico sent a letter to Google stating it was "wrong" and that "the entire Gulf of Mexico cannot be called the Gulf of America."
• Mexico is considering a civil lawsuit against Google for adopting the "Gulf of America" name on its maps, especially as it is displayed to users within the United States. Sheinbaum stated her government "wouldn’t rule out filing a civil lawsuit against Google if it… decided to call the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States the ‘Gulf of America.’"

1. Geopolitical & Historical Context:

• Sheinbaum used historical context to subtly criticize Trump. She referred to the constitution of Apatzingán, in which the North American territory was previously identified as "Mexican America".
• The dispute highlights potential clashes over geographic naming conventions and their political significance, especially concerning shared borders and resources. The Time article also notes a similar issue with the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo border river.

1. Implementation Challenges:

• NOAA faces challenges in implementing the name change in weather forecasts, especially for areas outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. The Axios article states, "The Hurricane Center hasn't determined yet how it will handle its forecasts outside the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone while being consistent with Trump's executive order."
• Google's approach has been to adapt the displayed name based on the user's location, showing "Gulf of America" in the U.S. and "Gulf of Mexico" in Mexico, or a combination elsewhere. As the Time article states, "If the user is in the United States, the body of water appeared as Gulf of America. If the user was physically in Mexico, it would appear as the Gulf of Mexico. In many other countries across the world it appears as ‘Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America).’"

NOAA Restrictions and Concerns

Subject: Recent Restrictions Imposed on NOAA Scientists and Resulting Concerns

meteorology Matters details new restrictions imposed on scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the Trump administration, sparking considerable concern within the agency and among international partners. These restrictions include increased oversight of communications with foreign nationals, additional administrative burdens, and anticipated budget and staffing cuts. These measures are perceived as part of a broader effort to deprioritize climate crisis efforts and potentially privatize parts of NOAA. The changes raise alarms about the potential impact on weather forecasting accuracy, international scientific collaboration, and the availability of crucial climate data.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. Increased Restrictions on International Communication and Collaboration:

• NOAA is implementing new oversight of scientists' email and "virtual meetings" with foreign nationals.
• All "international engagements" require documentation and approval by a Trump political appointee.
• One NOAA Research email stated staff now need to submit any "international engagement" for approval, including travel, face-to-face meetings or gatherings of international organizations. As for whether that includes emails with colleagues of different nationalities, the guidance said: “Not at this time.”
• The National Marine Fisheries Service has told staff to stop all contact with foreign nationals.
• These restrictions are seen as creating an "onerous" administrative burden, especially for the National Weather Service (NWS).

1. Concerns About a "Crackdown on Climate" and Politicization of Science:

• A senior NOAA scientist stated, "My expectation is that it’s going to be a crackdown on climate. People are just somewhere between disturbed and terrified."
• Fears stem from previous incidents of scientists being sidelined or muted during Trump's first term.
• Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge), placed the head of Noaa’s human resources team on administrative leave and initiated an agency-wide purge of activities related to diversity, equity and inclusion.

1. Budget and Staffing Cuts Looming:

• Employees have reportedly been told to expect a 50% reduction in staff and budget cuts of 30%.
• Project 2025 architect Russell Vought proposed a 38% budget cut for Noaa to “to curb excessive mission creep in key agencies, halt steadily increasing climate extremism within the department, and eliminate the prioritization of woke agendas”.
• "Hundreds" of NOAA staff have reportedly accepted federal buyouts.
• There are reported sweeping efforts to shrink the federal workforce with repeated requests for volunteers who want to resign.

1. Potential Impact on Weather Forecasting and Climate Science:

• The restrictions and cuts could "hamper the ability of the US to maintain a functioning public weather service."
• Reduced international collaboration could undermine the ability to "understand and combat" the climate crisis, according to a climate scientist at the EU's Copernicus agency. "The climate crisis knows no boundaries, and halting international scientific collaboration can only undermine our ability to understand and combat it.”

Red States Hurt the Most by the Trump Administration's Climate Funding Freeze (February 2025)

Executive Summary:

President Trump's executive order freezing climate-related funding, particularly from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, is causing widespread disruption and uncertainty. While the legality of the freeze is being challenged in court, it has led to project delays, job losses, and financial strain on states, nonprofits, and private companies. Surprisingly, Republican-leaning states and districts stand to lose the most economically from this freeze, as they are the primary beneficiaries of clean energy investments spurred by the IRA. The situation has created a complex political dynamic, with some Republicans quietly attempting to protect projects in their districts while publicly supporting the administration's agenda.

Key Themes and Ideas:

• Immediate Disruption and Confusion: The executive order has caused immediate chaos, delaying projects and forcing organizations to furlough or fire staff. As Chuck Morse, executive director of Thrive New Orleans, stated: "The funding freeze 'is going to be devastating for us — we may not survive this'... 'We can't make our payroll... We're going to have to shut down our programs and have a lot less impact. … It's hurting the people we pledged to serve.'" This highlights the real-world impact on communities and organizations reliant on the funding.
• Republican States Hardest Hit: A key finding is that Republican districts are the primary beneficiaries of clean energy investments stimulated by the IRA. According to the New York Times, "Roughly 80 percent of those investments are in Republican congressional districts, where they are creating a once-in-a-generation manufacturing boom." This creates a difficult political situation for Republicans who must balance party loyalty with the economic interests of their constituents.
• Economic Impact: The funding freeze threatens a clean energy manufacturing boom. BloombergNEF predicts that "more than half" of the nearly $30 billion in clean technology factories scheduled to come online in 2025 will face delays or cancellations. This could lead to job losses and hinder the growth of the clean energy sector.
• Investor Uncertainty: The possibility of repealing or modifying federal loans and tax incentives from the IRA is making investors nervous and causing companies to reevaluate their plans. "Many manufacturers now face 'significant political uncertainty' on top of that, as companies wonder whether the Trump administration will repeal or modify federal loans and tax incentives," according to Antoine Vagneur-Jones of BloombergNEF.

Important Facts and Figures:

• $32 billion: Estimated amount of unspent IRA funding vulnerable to being frozen (Washington Post).
• $20.5 billion: Amount of the unspent money from the EPA (Washington Post).
• 80%: Approximate percentage of clean energy manufacturing investments flowing to Republican congressional districts (New York Times).
• $165.8 billion: Total planned investments by private companies chasing IRA tax breaks (New York Times).
• $30 billion: Value of clean technology factories scheduled to come online in 2025, more than half predicted to face delays or cancellations (New York Times, citing BloombergNEF).
• 168: Number of renewable energy projects whose permitting was paused by the Army Corps of Engineers (New York Times).

State of the Climate - 2024 and Beyond

2024 is confirmed as the hottest year on record, surpassing 2023, and marking a decade of unprecedented heat. This has triggered extreme weather events globally and heightened concerns about the potential for earlier-than-expected breaches of the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C warming threshold. Scientists are investigating factors beyond fossil fuel emissions and El Niño, such as aerosol reductions from shipping regulations and decreased cloud cover, to fully explain the surge in temperatures. While international agreements and initiatives are in place, urgent and accelerated climate action is imperative to mitigate future warming and adapt to its impacts.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. Record-Breaking Temperatures:

• 2024 is set to be the warmest year on record, continuing a trend of escalating temperatures: "The year 2024 is set to be the warmest on record, capping a decade of unprecedented heat fuelled by human activities." (UN News)
• The past decade has seen the warmest years on record. "The past 10 years have been the warmest 10 years since record-keeping began." (NPR)
• Average global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. (Al Jazeera)
• Earth experienced its warmest day ever on July 22, 2024. (Al Jazeera)
• January 2024 was the warmest January on record, with an average surface air temperature of 13.14˚C. (Al Jazeera)

1. Exceedance of Paris Agreement Thresholds:

• There is growing concern that long-term warming may exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit sooner than expected. "Recent warming has sparked debate about whether the world might exceed the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement limit earlier than previously estimated." (Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)
• Twelve consecutive months with temperatures at least 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels raises alarms, although experts note this doesn't automatically mean the long-term goal has been exceeded.
• Analysis suggests that exceeding 1.5°C for 12 consecutive months indicates the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed. "Hence, in CMIP6 simulations, 12 consecutive months above 1.5 °C indicates that the Paris Agreement threshold is likely to have already been crossed" (Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold)
• Even exceeding the threshold in one year doesn't signal complete failure. Temperatures need to breach 1.5 degrees Celsius consistently, calculated over a 20-year average. "Passing that threshold in one year doesn't mean countries have failed, however. Temperatures would need to consistently breach 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to scientists, calculated over a 20-year average." (NPR)

1. Extreme Weather Events:

• Rising temperatures are linked to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events: "Climate change also intensified 26 of the 29 weather events studied by World Weather Attribution that killed at least 3700 people and displaced millions." (UN News)
• Examples of extreme events include deadly floods, devastating wildfires, early heatwaves, and catastrophic hurricanes. (Al Jazeera)
• Europe could see millions of deaths from extreme heat by the end of the century if carbon pollution is not reduced and adaptation measures aren't implemented. "Extreme temperatures — mostly heat — are projected to kill as many as 2.3 million people in Europe by the end of the century unless countries get better at reducing carbon pollution and adapting to hotter conditions, a new study says." (TIME)

Future of FEMA

Subject: Potential Restructuring or Elimination of FEMA and State Preparedness

Summary: Meteorology Matters examines the future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in light of increasing disaster frequency and severity due to climate change. One article explores the ability of states to manage disasters without FEMA, highlighting the agency's crucial role in coordinating resources and providing financial aid. The second article details a political move by the Trump administration to potentially dismantle or significantly alter FEMA, sparking concerns about disaster relief and response capabilities.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. The Critical Role of FEMA:

• FEMA coordinates federal resources, provides financial assistance, and offers logistical support during disasters. This includes coordinating rescue operations, restoring power, delivering supplies, and managing the National Flood Insurance Program.
• FEMA's assistance is triggered after a state requests an emergency declaration and demonstrates the disaster exceeds their capacity.
• The article "If FEMA didn't exist..." emphasizes that FEMA "pools federal resources to allow states to recover faster from expensive disasters."
• Without FEMA, states, particularly smaller, rural, or less wealthy ones, would struggle significantly to manage disaster response and recovery. Lynn Budd, director of the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, stated, "States don’t have that capability built to handle a disaster every single year."
• The absence of FEMA could lead to uneven recovery, with wealthier areas recovering faster and poorer areas facing prolonged hardship.
• The agency also manages the National Flood Insurance Program, offers disaster preparedness training and helps states develop response plans to improve their overall response systems.

The Tempest Stela and Bronze Age Chronology

Subject: Analysis of the "Tempest Stela" and its potential impact on Bronze Age chronology.

Executive Summary:

A new interpretation of the "Tempest Stela," a 3,500-year-old Egyptian stone block, suggests it may be the world's oldest weather report, describing severe weather events potentially linked to the volcanic eruption at Thera (Santorini). This connection, if valid, could revise the dating of the reign of Pharaoh Ahmose, pushing it back by 30-50 years. This shift would have significant ramifications for the established chronology of the ancient Near East and Eastern Mediterranean, potentially resolving discrepancies between archaeological evidence and radiocarbon dating and offering new insights into the rise and fall of Bronze Age empires.

Key Themes and Ideas:

1. The Tempest Stela as a Weather Report: The inscription on the stela, previously interpreted by some as metaphorical, is now argued to be a literal account of extreme weather events. The inscription describes "rain, darkness and ‘the sky being in storm without cessation, louder than the cries of the masses.’" Further details include "a tempest of rain," and "bodies floating down the Nile like ‘skiffs of papyrus.’"
2. Connection to the Thera Eruption: Researchers believe the weather patterns described on the stela could be the result of the massive volcanic eruption at Thera. This eruption, which occurred in the Mediterranean, would have had widespread climatological effects, including in Egypt. According to Marina Baldi, a scientist in climatology and meteorology, "A modification in the atmospheric circulation after the eruption could have driven a change in the precipitation regime of the region. Therefore the episode in the Tempest Stela could be a consequence of these climatological changes."
3. Revised Chronology of Ahmose's Reign: If the stela does describe the aftermath of the Thera eruption, the dating of Ahmose’s reign, currently estimated at around 1550 B.C., could be pushed back 30-50 years earlier. As Nadine Moeller, assistant professor of Egyptian archaeology notes, "This is important to scholars of the ancient Near East and eastern Mediterranean, generally because the chronology that archaeologists use is based on the lists of Egyptian pharaohs, and this new information could adjust those dates."
4. Impact on Bronze Age History: A revised dating of Ahmose's reign has the potential to realign the timeline of other important events in the ancient Near East, such as the fall of the Canaanites and the collapse of the Babylonian Empire. David Schloen, associate professor in the Oriental Institute, argues that "This new information would provide a better understanding of the role of the environment in the development and destruction of empires in the ancient Middle East." The eruption and resulting tsunami could have weakened the Hyksos rulers of Egypt and disrupted trade, contributing to the fall of the Babylonian Empire.
5. Resolution of Dating Discrepancies: Radiocarbon dating of an olive tree buried under volcanic residue placed the Thera eruption at 1621-1605 B.C.

Conclusion:

The interpretation of the Tempest Stela as a record of the Thera eruption's impact presents a compelling argument for revising the chronology of the Bronze Age Near East. While further research is needed, this new perspective has the potential to significantly alter our understanding of this crucial period in human history.

DOGE Scrutinizes NOAA

Date: February 10, 2025

Subject: Review of the Department of Government Efficiency's (DOGE) actions and potential impacts on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Executive Summary:

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, is actively scrutinizing and gaining access to NOAA's IT systems. This has raised significant concerns about potential budget and staff cuts, the loss or damage of vital climate and weather data, impacts on NOAA's ability to provide critical services (like weather forecasting and hurricane tracking), and the removal of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) related materials. The situation is described as a "hostile corporate takeover" by some observers and is linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan to dismantle and downsize NOAA. These actions are generating strong opposition from Democratic lawmakers and concerns from former NOAA officials and related organizations.

Key Themes and Information:

• DOGE Access and Actions:
• DOGE has gained access to NOAA's IT systems, raising concerns about the security of sensitive data. At least one member of DOGE was requested access.
• DOGE staffers reportedly "blew through security" and entered NOAA headquarters. As Andrew Rosenberg noted, "They apparently just sort of walked past security and said: ‘Get out of my way,’ and they’re looking for access for the IT systems, as they have in other agencies."
• The DOGE is reportedly looking for anything tied to DEI and ordering the removal of DEI-related materials from bulletin boards, websites, and internal communications. Employee resource groups and support spaces have also been taken down.
• DOGE employee Nikhil Rajpal was given edit access to NOAA's documents, reportedly following an order from acting Secretary of Commerce Jeremy Pelter.
• The National Marine Fisheries Service has been ordered to halt "ALL INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS."
• Personnel Changes and Potential Impacts:
• NOAA is preparing for potential layoffs and budget cuts. The agency has been told to expect to lose half of its employees and prepare for a 30% budget cut, according to former NOAA officials.
• A NOAA employee who led diversity and inclusion efforts was placed on administrative leave.
• There are concerns that NOAA's "irreplaceable climate and weather data could be damaged or lost."
• Impact on NOAA's Mission and Services:
• Concerns that cuts to NOAA could negatively impact its ability to provide critical services, including weather forecasts and warnings for severe weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. As Jennifer Brady of Climate Central notes, "NOAA is a vital piece of our communication strategy...Their data is vetted, it's verified. So, we know we can use it and trust it in our reports."
• The Union of Concerned Scientists' Juan Declet-Barreto describes the situation as "a hostile corporate takeover of a government agency that provides a suite of services to the public to protect lives and to protect property."
• There is a fear that privatizing weather forecasts could put more Americans at risk, especially if access to this information becomes a paid service.
• Project 2025 Connection:
• DOGE's actions are linked to Project 2025, a conservative plan that advocates for breaking up and downsizing NOAA, deeming it "one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity."